Will November see the rescue of democracy?

While the signs might be optimistic, it's really important for not to get complacent, in the belief that change is guaranteed. I can assure you it's not.

Read PART ONE

If it’s one thing I’ve learned when it comes to writing about politics, subject fatigue sets in all too quickly, and the War in Iran seems to be no exception. I fear that this is one of those moments when the true gravity of the situation will remain unrecognised until it’s too late, then people start asking why they weren’t told what was about to happen. Even if the war ended today, the impact would still hurt average Americans for some time to come.

The assumption is, unless the pain is on our doorstep, it doesn’t exist. All too often, we think that if someone highlights a threat, it has been exaggerated to gain clicks or attention. I’m afraid it’s a sad reflection of the world in which we live. However, I want to reassure you that fearmongering is not in my nature. I understand that living in a state of perpetual anxiety has become the norm for far too many Americans in Trump's world.

My job has always been, as I’ve said over and over, not to tell you what you want to hear, but rather what you NEED to hear. You can do with the information what you will, but be assured that each piece I write is born of tireless research and a genuine assessment grounded in a broad spectrum of detailed analysis. My work is about bringing together the threads of what can often be complex arguments to make them easier to break down and understand. On Sunday, Trump made his usual, predictable statement to calm markets and keep a lid on oil prices. Meantime, ‘Operation Freedom’ is now on hold as Trump plays footsie with the markets, claiming more optimism for a deal with Iran.

There seems little point in my engaging with this made-for-TV narrative exercise, because speculation is just that, speculation, and it’s of no use to anyone. The reality is, there’s no change; no ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

I feel it might be a better use of my time to turn to the midterm elections. Your vote is the single most important weapon you have against this existential assault on democracy, social justice and the rule of law. It goes without saying I’m not here to advocate for the MAGA agenda, but as you know, I also have many misgivings about establishment Democrats. Unfortunately, whether we like it or not, there is no viable third-party option at the moment, so much as it grieves me to say, Democrats remain the only game in town.

While this might be the case, that is not to say you should unconditionally lend your vote to what I have come to describe as Republican Lite. However, I would gently suggest that if you are on the fence, you should hold your nose and just vote Democrat for the common good. Tragically, the time for revolution within the Democratic Party has passed, but that does not mean to say that after the midterms, ‘people first’ Democrats can’t effect change from within. There will still be two years before the most consequential election in modern American history. If you are a hard-core progressive Democrat, this is a moment when pragmatism needs to lead your thinking. The primary objective is to halt this march to tyranny, but much more than that, to bring it to a screeching halt in a way that overwhelmingly rejects the cancer that is eating American politics from the inside out.

It’s easy when you’re angry to lose focus on the end goal. I’m more than aware that many within the Democratic base are rightfully angry with Democratic leadership and their failure to obstruct this administration in the same way that Republicans obstructed Obama and Biden. It’s infuriating that in such a critical moment, Democratic leadership in the House and the Senate allowed the Biden administration to die on the vine in 2024. It remains a catastrophic error which Democrats still refuse to own. A moment when nobody had the balls to insist Biden should honour his word to be a bridge to the next generation of Democratic leaders and not run for a second term.

Despite the false narrative that took hold following Trump’s 2024 election victory, in which he claimed to have inherited an economic disaster, the Biden administration is widely credited with leaving the world’s leading economy in a state ready to be built upon. It oversaw the fastest post-pandemic recovery among all developed nations, which many renowned economists described as ‘the envy of the world’. Of course, there are always two sides to a story, and I genuinely believe it's worth examining both to better understand what is required of any new Democratic administration. Let’s begin with a scorecard from a Guardian opinion piece in January 2025. It noted:

Biden orchestrated the best recovery in the industrial world, leaving his successor an economy with low unemployment and low inflation, “an economy that is about as good as it ever gets”, in the words of Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.

It goes on:

By sustaining Trump’s tariffs and integrating them with a new industrial policy – focused on alternative energy and high-tech investment – Biden consolidated bipartisan support for the break with market fundamentalism that had governed US policy since Ronald Reagan. He also revived antitrust policy and sensible regulation – putting limits on prescription drug company rip-offs, going after the new monopolies.

I highly recommend reading the piece because it makes some really valuable points and is not without some scathing criticism, particularly in respect to foreign policy. In my mind, he was a good man with good intentions and a commitment to address the growing economic inequality in American society. He should be applauded for that. Unfortunately, he, like Obama before him, was swimming against a tide of corporate resistance to taming their insatiable greed at the expense of social responsibility. If you want to take a read of a more detailed and nuanced assessment of Biden’s presidency, you can always take a look at the Brookings Institution paper entitled

BIDEN’S FISCAL LEGACY: A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF SPENDING, TAXES, AND DEFICITS

For context, the Brookings Institution is NOT a conservative think tank; it is widely considered to position itself slightly left of centre. It would be easy to view the report as critical of Biden’s economic policy agenda, but I believe it overlooks the genuine efforts to manage the fiscal balance resulting from the wealth gap. Instead, it focuses on the deficit outcomes, which, far from addressing them, have simply led him to further embrace public debt.

Unlike in the Parliamentary system we have in the UK, Democratic administrations in the US seem to be able to do little but tinker around the edges when it comes to transformative legislation. Without a sound majority in the House of Representatives and a super majority in the Senate, no party can deliver a truly transformative agenda without skilful leadership. I understand that this is by design, but it does not make it either effective or efficient, and it’s definitely a fundamental flaw. One made worse by the influence of special interests and the ability of wealth to dictate legislation. Nothing new, I know, but frustrating nevertheless.

Corporate interests buy off politicians on both sides of the aisle, providing a hedge against any progressive-leaning administration. They know that if they control enough votes on key legislation that challenges their God-given right to tax cuts and deregulation, they have just enough votes to protect their interests. The result is that any Democratic administration is unable to effect the kind of change needed to create a more equitable society. Corporate influence simply undermines any progressive agenda by denying implementation.

I often speak of the need for a revolution within the Democratic Party before any real transformative change can take place. The tyranny Americans are currently being subjected to provides the perfect incubator for transformative change within the Democratic Party; it’s just that establishment Democrats are the gatekeepers protecting against that change.

The Democratic base is sick of the same old, same old lack of ambition and vision from the party leadership. Their constant marginalisation of some of the most talented progressive representatives in Congress simply serves to maintain a broken status quo, and without change, progress can never be made. Trust in politicians from all sides is at an all-time low. Americans now tend to vote for whoever they perceive as the lesser of two evils. This is why it has long been said that voters get the politicians they deserve.

We are living in a moment when Americans are no longer voting FOR someone; they are instead voting AGAINST those who would do them harm, and that is a sorry indictment of where we find ourselves. It’s reflective of a society exhausted by exploitation and extortion by those in power who should be representing their interests. Elections are no longer won by presenting a bold vision of hope, supported by a detailed, costed proposition to deliver change; they are won by how effectively you can divide a nation into tribal factions to control the voter pool and suppress opposition votes. It’s banana republic territory.

Hope, vision, ambition and moral decency have left the building to be replaced with lies, deceit, and promises few have an intention of keeping once they have secured your vote. It’s not by accident that 90 million Americans did not vote in 2024; they are sick and tired of change never being delivered that materially improves their lives. A feudal society breeds disengagement, which, if not addressed, leads to political violence. I believe Trump has, by his failure, created the perfect environment to deliver a massive win to Democrats through a combination of activating the Democratic base while fueling a tsunami of protest votes against him.

I would urge EVERY Democrat to please not fall for the inevitable narrative which I believe will follow any significant win for Democrats if (and it’s a real IF) free and fair elections actually take place in November. As sure as night follows day, I can guarantee Democratic leadership will not stay in bed for a month as they did when they were defeated in 2024. They will be out the moment the results are announced to tell America that Democrats are back and the corner has been turned. Please don’t get caught up in the hype. Yes, enjoy the win (if it happens), but there’s a big difference between Trump losing and Democrats winning, even though the outcome is identical.

To be clear, I’ll take a Democrat win regardless of how it’s achieved, so don’t misunderstand what I’m saying. The critical first step in fighting a disease is breaking the fever, but please don’t assume victory is inevitable. MAGA has a long tail, as was demonstrated in the Indiana primary yesterday, when five out of the seven candidates who defied Trump on redistricting were defeated by MAGA loyalists. Underestimate the enemy at your peril.

In the coming days, I want to focus on my thoughts on both the dangers and the opportunities presented in the upcoming midterms. Never has change been so mission-critical. It’s not the change itself that’s important; it’s how that change is implemented, in a moment where the poor and the vulnerable are being sacrificed at the altar of greed. November will be a pivotal measure of the true appetite for change.

Read PART THREE

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